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Doctor
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Cards: The Problem and Solutions
      Avg # of Arcana   Min Max Mean Wt. Mean Dice Mean vs Dice
Odds for a Two Card Hand     0.571428571428571         7.857142857142850 11 -3.14285714285715
 Minor Arcana 0 50.64935064935060% 0.000000000000000   2 20 11 5.571428571428570    
 Minor Arcana 1 41.55844155844150% 0.415584415584415   1 10 5.5 2.285714285714280    
 Minor Arcana 2 7.79220779220779% 0.155844155844156   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Three Card Hand     0.857142857142857         11.785714285714300 16.5 -4.71428571428573
 Minor Arcana 0 35.64213564213560% 0.000000000000000   3 30 16.5 5.880952380952370    
 Minor Arcana 1 45.02164502164500% 0.450216450216450   2 20 11 4.952380952380950    
 Minor Arcana 2 17.31601731601730% 0.346320346320346   1 10 5.5 0.952380952380951    
 Minor Arcana 3 2.02020202020202% 0.060606060606061   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Four Card Hand     1.142857142857140         15.714285714285700 22 -6.28571428571429
 Minor Arcana 0 24.88224563696260% 0.000000000000000   4 40 22 5.474094040131770    
 Minor Arcana 1 43.03956002069210% 0.430395600206921   3 30 16.5 7.101527403414200    
 Minor Arcana 2 25.48395001225190% 0.509679000245038   2 20 11 2.803234501347710    
 Minor Arcana 3 6.09872307985516% 0.182961692395655   1 10 5.5 0.335429769392034    
 Minor Arcana 4 0.49552125023823% 0.019820850009529   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Five Card Hand     1.428571428571430         19.642857142857100 27.5 -7.85714285714287
 Minor Arcana 0 17.22617005635870% 0.000000000000000   6 49 27.5 4.737196765498640    
 Minor Arcana 1 38.28037790301940% 0.382803779030194   4 40 22 8.421683138664270    
 Minor Arcana 2 31.03814424569140% 0.620762884913828   3 30 16.5 5.121293800539080    
 Minor Arcana 3 11.43510577472840% 0.343053173241852   2 20 11 1.257861635220120    
 Minor Arcana 4 1.90585096245474% 0.076234038498190   1 10 5.5 0.104821802935011    
 Minor Arcana 5 0.11435105774728% 0.005717552887364   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Six Card Hand     1.714285714285710         23.571428571428500 33 -9.42857142857148
 Minor Arcana 0 11.82188141122650% 0.000000000000000   8 58 33 3.901220865704740    
 Minor Arcana 1 32.42573187079290% 0.324257318707929   6 49 27.5 8.917076264468050    
 Minor Arcana 2 33.77680403207590% 0.675536080641518   4 40 22 7.430896887056700    
 Minor Arcana 3 17.04054978194820% 0.511216493458446   3 30 16.5 2.811690714021450    
 Minor Arcana 4 4.37224632563145% 0.174889853025258   2 20 11 0.480947095819459    
 Minor Arcana 5 0.53812262469310% 0.026906131234655   1 10 5.5 0.029596744358121    
 Minor Arcana 6 0.02466395363177% 0.001479837217906   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Seven Card Hand     2.000000000000000         27.500000000000000 38.5 -11.00000000000000
 Minor Arcana 0 8.03887935963407% 0.000000000000000   10 67 38.5 3.094968553459120    
 Minor Arcana 1 26.48101436114750% 0.264810143611475   8 58 33 8.738734739178670    
 Minor Arcana 2 34.04701846433250% 0.680940369286650   6 49 27.5 9.362930077691440    
 Minor Arcana 3 22.06751196762290% 0.662025359028687   4 40 22 4.854852632877040    
 Minor Arcana 4 7.75345015078644% 0.310138006031458   3 30 16.5 1.279319274879760    
 Minor Arcana 5 1.46907476541217% 0.073453738270609   2 20 11 0.161598224195339    
 Minor Arcana 6 0.13811814033790% 0.008287088420274   1 10 5.5 0.007596497718584    
 Minor Arcana 7 0.00493279072635% 0.000345295350845   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for an Eight Card Hand     2.285714285714280         31.428571428571400 44 -12.57142857142860
 Minor Arcana 0 5.41393916056989% 0.000000000000000   12 76 44 2.382133230650750    
 Minor Arcana 1 20.99952159251350% 0.209995215925135   10 67 38.5 8.084815813117700    
 Minor Arcana 2 32.42573187079290% 0.648514637415858   8 58 33 10.700491517361700    
 Minor Arcana 3 25.94058549663430% 0.778217564899029   6 49 27.5 7.133661011574430    
 Minor Arcana 4 11.70929206445290% 0.468371682578116   4 40 22 2.576044254179640    
 Minor Arcana 5 3.03808658969591% 0.151904329484796   3 30 16.5 0.501284287299825    
 Minor Arcana 6 0.43972305903493% 0.026383383542096   2 20 11 0.048369536493843    
 Minor Arcana 7 0.03221414351904% 0.002254990046333   1 10 5.5 0.001771777893547    
 Minor Arcana 8 0.00090602278647% 0.000072481822918   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Nine Card Hand     2.571428571428560         35.357142857142800 49.5 -14.14285714285720
 Minor Arcana 0 3.60929277371325% 0.000000000000000   15 84 49.5 1.786599922988060    
 Minor Arcana 1 16.24181748170960% 0.162418174817096   12 76 44 7.146399691952220    
 Minor Arcana 2 29.53057723947210% 0.590611544789442   10 67 38.5 11.369272237196800    
 Minor Arcana 3 28.37251538694370% 0.851175461608311   8 58 33 9.362930077691420    
 Minor Arcana 4 15.80754428701150% 0.632301771480460   6 49 27.5 4.347074678928160    
 Minor Arcana 5 5.26918142900384% 0.263459071450192   4 40 22 1.159219914380840    
 Minor Arcana 6 1.04434226520797% 0.062660535912478   3 30 16.5 0.172316473759315    
 Minor Arcana 7 0.11778296224150% 0.008244807356905   2 20 11 0.012956125846565    
 Minor Arcana 8 0.00679517089855% 0.000543613671884   1 10 5.5 0.000373734399420    
 Minor Arcana 9 0.00015100379775% 0.000013590341797   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    
                     
Odds for a Ten Card Hand     2.857142857142850         39.285714285714200 55 -15.71428571428580
 Minor Arcana 0 2.38059736138534% 0.000000000000000   18 92 55 1.309328548761940    
 Minor Arcana 1 12.28695412327910% 0.122869541232791   15 84 49.5 6.082042291023150    
 Minor Arcana 2 25.91779385379200% 0.518355877075840   12 76 44 11.403829295668500    
 Minor Arcana 3 29.32114052146160% 0.879634215643848   10 67 38.5 11.288639100762700    
 Minor Arcana 4 19.61929255480150% 0.784771702192060   8 58 33 6.474366543084500    
 Minor Arcana 5 8.07193750826121% 0.403596875413060   6 49 27.5 2.219782814771830    
 Minor Arcana 6 2.05535445812206% 0.123321267487324   4 40 22 0.452177980786853    
 Minor Arcana 7 0.31742925994163% 0.022220048195914   3 30 16.5 0.052375827890369    
 Minor Arcana 8 0.02819273032376% 0.002255418425901   2 20 11 0.003101200335614    
 Minor Arcana 9 0.00128513870422% 0.000115662483380   1 10 5.5 0.000070682628732    
 Minor Arcana 10 0.00002248992732% 0.000002248992732   0 0 0 0.000000000000000    

[Full disclosure: the weighted means are not absolutely accurate; as card draws are dependant events and dice rolls are independent events, the distribution curve (and thus the "true" average) is going to be slightly different. However, as I expect any changes to be in or around the 7th or 8th decimal places, the overall arguments herein are not changed.]

 

As you can see, the use of cards imposes a penalty of between 1.5714285714285 and 1.5714285714286 per die. A change in result of around +/-5 will result in a change in the number of Raises the roll produces. Thus at pools of four, seven, and ten, a player using the card option is likely to lose a Raise against a player rolling the same number of dice.  Fortunately, the solution to this issue is obvious. At pools of four and seven, the average number of Minor Arcana per hand increases by one at the same time the average result of a hand produces one fewer Raise.

 

Proposed Rule Change: Any Minor Arcana which is not played or retained (via the Ace in the Hole rule) may be matched with any numerical card to create a Raise.

 

Alternate Proposed Rule Change: The above rule is treated as a Rank Bonus at Rank either Rank 2 or Rank 3.

 

The logic behind the alternate is that, for pools of two, this rule change creates an slightly outsized likelihood of a Raise (69.41558441558433% with cards as opposed to 64% with dice).

 

[Full disclosure Part II: I hate statistics, which is why I am struggling with the distribution curves for the card hands. If anyone knows off hand how to calculate the probability of a given pip total, please shoot me a ping.]

 

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“Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.”
- H.L. Mencken

Jordi Estefa
Jordi Estefa's picture

This looks great!
I have a few questions and requests (if I may :P ).

Which software are you using to calculate this?
Could you add the weighted mean deviations for cards and dice?
Would it be possible for you to calculate the same stuff for when two and three players are drawing from the same deck? Do you think that the average result  would increase, decrease or remain the same with a higher number of players? 
I really like your proposed rule. Would the Raise obtained with "numerical card +  Arcana" count double when is possible to obtain two Raises with a 15?
How much the mean would increase if you could get Raises by combining two Minor Arcana cards?
There are special effects that add or may add Raises to the total in particular situations (Dame of Cups, Queen of Coins and King of Coins). Given that the cards can be used when drawn, how much would those effects affect the mean values?
I know it is hard to say, as it depends a lot on the players, but it would be interesting to see how the mean changes when the players keep high value cards (lets say 8-10) when they hand is higher than the mean and use them when they hand is lower.

Thanks for the analysis, Doctor.

Doctor
Doctor's picture

Which software are you using to calculate this?

These calculations were done the hard way, with a TI-82 and combinatronics formulas.

 

Could you add the weighted mean deviations for cards and dice?

I can add the deviations for dice, but I am still figuring out the distribution curves and deviations for the cards.

 

 

# Dice

Deviation

1

2.87

2

4.06

3

4.97

4

5.74

5

6.42

6

7.04

7

7.6

8

8.12

9

8.62

10

9.08

 

Would it be possible for you to calculate the same stuff for when two and three players are drawing from the same deck? Do you think that the average result  would increase, decrease or remain the same with a higher number of players?

While these calculations are possible, I don't think they would be useful. With multiple players drawing, for example, each of the 63 possible outcomes for the first player would generate 63 possible outcomes for the second, meaning that there would be 3969 probabilities to calculate for player 2. The average result for player 2 would depend entirely on the draw for player 1.

 

I really like your proposed rule. Would the Raise obtained with "numerical card +  Arcana" count double when is possible to obtain two Raises with a 15?

I don't think it would, only because the odds of getting a total of 15 or above on two cards are significantly lower than getting a 10 or above. I would consider allowing it with any two numerical cards, however, as the odds of getting 15 or above on three cards are fairly good.

 

How much the mean would increase if you could get Raises by combining two Minor Arcana cards?

I'll crunch these numbers shortly. The issue is that the number of Raises from a given hand (or roll) is not entirely dependent on the total result of the roll (e.g. a roll of 9,9,9,9 totals 36, but only yields two Raises, while a roll of 10,10,8,8 has the same total but yields three Raises). There is not, so far, a good way to model Raises. On the whole, however, you average a little under one Raise per two cards (based on some rudimentary calculations) so I expect that the mean number of Raises would increase measurably if you allowed two Arcana to be combined for a Raise.

 

There are special effects that add or may add Raises to the total in particular situations (Dame of Cups, Queen of Coins and King of Coins). Given that the cards can be used when drawn, how much would those effects affect the mean values?

Only two of the 16 Minor Arcana directly grant Raises, the Dame of Cups and the Queen of Swords, and while the odds of getting either change based on the number of face cards you draw, you have a 12.5% chance to draw one of the two on your first face card. The problem here is "given that the cards can be used when drawn:" the Queen of Swords (among others) specifies that it must be played before a Risk, meaning it cannot be played for the Risk it is drawn on. This leaves the Dame of Cups, which can only be played " after you make Raises for a romance-themed Risk;" calculating how often that happens would be needed to give a meaningful statement about how much the card affects mean values.

 

I know it is hard to say, as it depends a lot on the players, but it would be interesting to see how the mean changes when the players keep high value cards (let's say 8-10) when they hand is higher than the mean and use them when the hand is lower.

I think Hero Point economy would limit that behavior substantially. A more interesting question, I think, would be how often players keep Minor Arcana.

 

“Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.”
- H.L. Mencken

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